Weekly Market Intelligence: Week of October 5, 2026

Last week the all-in rate and the cost driving it moved in opposite directions. This week they inverted again, and this time the direction favors the carrier: base rates are rising on real tightness while fuel subtracts from the total.

• $6.199U.S. diesel, $/gal (EIA, week ending 10/5; down 18.3¢)
• $3.13Dry van all-in $/mi (linehaul $2.25, up 7¢)
• $3.69Reefer all-in $/mi (linehaul $2.74, up 2¢)
• $3.71Flatbed all-in $/mi (linehaul $2.65, up 6¢)

Three takeaways

• Lock the base rate; the window is closing. Linehaul rose in every mode while capacity left the board. A base rate signed this week beats one signed in November, and published guidance is to price before mid-October or wait for Q1 2027.
• Your fuel table now over-recovers by about 5 cents. The illustrative truckload surcharge fell from 52.0 to 49.2 cents per mile, 5.1 cents below the 9/21 record peak. Audit the fuel line on every October invoice against the weekly EIA print.
• Rejections turned back up. National tender rejections are back above 14%, up from the 12.54% print cited on 9/21. Treat the easing as a pause, not a trend.

Inside the 11-page package

Executive summary · Reefer · LTL · Dry van · Flatbed · EDI tender decline report · Fuel surcharge report, all modes · Diesel cost by PADD (regional) · Reefer rate and reefer ROTRI 13-week comparisons.

Data sources include DAT Freight & Analytics, U.S. EIA, and the Cass Freight Index; full citations are in the PDF. The EDI tender decline section uses a simulated carrier panel and is labeled illustrative, and some historical comparisons are analyst estimates, labeled as such in the report.

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